The 2021-22 NFL Regular Season saw an unprecedented number of games decided in the final 60 seconds or overtime.
The NFL has implemented a rule change for overtime games in the playoffs, requiring both teams to have an opportunity to possess the ball at least once in overtime, unless the team that receives the kickoff scores a touchdown on the first possession.
With the introduction of a first-ever 17-game season, predictions and odds are being made regarding how many NFL games will go into overtime or end in a tie this season.
This article will discuss the overtime rules, predictions and odds, and the tie game market.
Overtime Rules
A rule change for overtime games in the NFL playoffs was implemented after a controversial ending in the 2021-22 AFC Playoffs. The change was passed by a 29-3 vote from the 32 NFL owners. The new rule requires both teams to have the opportunity to possess the ball at least once in overtime, unless the team that receives the kickoff scores a touchdown on its first possession.
This differs from the old rule, where the team that won the overtime coin toss had a 10-2 record in the playoffs. This rule is only applied in the NFL postseason, and it is expected that teams scoring a touchdown on their first possession in overtime will go for a two-point conversion to end the game.
Since the introduction of overtime in 1974, there have been 574 regular season games that were decided in overtime. The Oakland Raiders went 4-0 in overtime games last season, which helped secure their playoff spot. The expectation for the 2022-23 season is that there will be fewer overtime games in comparison to the previous season.
The over/under for total overtime games in the 2022-23 season has been set at 17.5, and betting on the under is recommended. Additionally, the odds favor a game ending in regulation rather than a tie.
Predictions and Odds
Predictions for the number of overtime games and tie games in the 2022-23 season are expected to be lower than the previous season due to the new overtime rule.
The over/under for total overtime games is set at 17.5, with betting on under recommended.
Odds favor the game ending in regulation rather than a tie.
There have been 27 ties since the introduction of overtime in 1974, with 17 under the first set of rules and 5 under the second set of rules.
Market for betting on NFL games ending in tie in regulation heavily favors game ending in regulation rather than a tie.
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574 regular season games decided in overtime since 1974.
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Raiders went 4-0 in overtime games last season.
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27 games ended in tie since introduction of overtime in 1974.
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21 overtime games in 2021-22 NFL season.
Tie Game Market
The Tie Game Market heavily favors games ending in regulation rather than a tie. With the odds heavily stacked against a tie game occurring in any given NFL season, the market for betting on NFL games ending in a tie has been heavily impacted. In the last three NFL seasons, only 27 games have ended in a tie, with the Detroit Lions being involved in two of them. With the overtime period now shortened to 10 minutes, the option of betting on a tie game is not worth considering.
Games | Odds | |
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Ends in Regulation | 574 | Heavily Favored |
Ends in Tie | 27 | Unfavorable |